— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
51¢
hres
20¢
eps
8¢
nbm
4¢
rrfs
4¢
aifs
2¢
wn2
2¢
ndfd
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F21¢
82–83°F25¢
84–85°F21¢
86–87°F11¢
88–89°F4¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-LE75 · opened 2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape