KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

20%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.6¢Risks 26.60u

AIFSNO 73.4¢Risks 73.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.40u · AIFS −73.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	5.2%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	2.5%	10.0%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00	2.5%	10.0%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	2.5%	10.5%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	2.5%	10.5%	3.8%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	2.5%	10.5%	6.7%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	2.5%	10.5%	6.7%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	2.5%	10.5%	6.7%	50.8%	37.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	3.5%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	6.0%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	2.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.9%	36.4%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	3.0%	10.5%	1.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	3.0%	10.5%	1.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	3.0%	10.5%	1.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	3.0%	10.5%	1.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	3.0%	10.5%	1.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	3.0%	8.2%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	3.0%	8.2%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	3.0%	8.2%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	3.6%	8.2%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	3.5%	8.2%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	3.5%	8.4%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	3.5%	8.4%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	3.5%	8.4%	2.7%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	3.5%	8.4%	1.5%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	3.5%	8.4%	1.5%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	3.5%	8.4%	1.5%	20.3%	8.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.5%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.5%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.5%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.5%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.5%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	2.6%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T04:06:00+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	1.7%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	3.7%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	26.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	2.1%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	51.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	2.1%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	51.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	2.1%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	51.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	2.1%	8.4%	2.1%	19.7%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	51%	75.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	79.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	85.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	83.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 75°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-LE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗