— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
89¢
aifs
85¢
wn2
80¢
icon
72¢
hres
71¢
nbm
63¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F7¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,463 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.9 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape