KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

80%

72%

71%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.0¢Risks 40.02u

HRESNO 20.0¢Risks 9.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +9.98u · HRES −9.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	71.1%	78.4%	80.6%	74.2%	81.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	71.1%	78.4%	77.8%	74.2%	81.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	71.1%	78.4%	77.8%	74.2%	81.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	71.1%	78.4%	77.8%	74.2%	81.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00	79.2%	78.4%	77.8%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	79.2%	78.4%	77.8%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	79.2%	78.4%	77.8%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	79.2%	78.4%	77.8%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	79.2%	78.4%	77.8%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	79.2%	88.3%	85.3%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	79.2%	88.3%	85.3%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	79.2%	88.3%	85.3%	44.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	79.2%	88.3%	85.3%	44.1%	69.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	79.2%	88.2%	85.2%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	79.2%	88.9%	85.2%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	79.2%	88.9%	85.2%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	79.2%	88.9%	81.5%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	79.2%	88.9%	81.5%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	79.2%	88.9%	81.5%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	79.2%	88.9%	81.5%	44.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	81.5%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	81.5%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	81.5%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	81.5%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	81.3%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	85.0%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	85.0%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	85.0%	88.9%	79.8%	71.2%	72.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	83.8°F	7.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	80.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	78.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	72%	78.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	78.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗