— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
91¢
wn2
75¢
eps
71¢
aifs
70¢
icon
56¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F18¢
86–87°F13¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,365 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.476 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape