KPHX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

71%

70%

56%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

ICONNO 26.7¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.75u · ICON −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	81.7%	74.5%	78.3%	80.7%	19.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	81.7%	74.5%	78.3%	80.7%	19.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	81.7%	74.5%	78.3%	80.7%	19.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	81.7%	74.5%	78.3%	80.7%	19.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	83.1%	74.5%	78.3%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:18+00:00	83.1%	74.5%	78.3%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	83.1%	71.2%	78.3%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	83.1%	71.2%	78.3%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	83.1%	71.2%	70.1%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	83.1%	71.2%	70.1%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	83.1%	71.2%	70.1%	80.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	70.1%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	70.1%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	70.1%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	70.1%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	70.1%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	75.1%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	70.5%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	70.5%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	70.5%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	70.5%	71.2%	74.7%	90.9%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	88.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	82.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	82.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	82.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	80.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗