— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
34¢
aifs
33¢
eps
17¢
wn2
8¢
icon
3¢
nbm
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F15¢
84–85°F19¢
86–87°F18¢
88–89°F14¢
90–91°F9¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,437 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.597 vs climatology 8.737.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261027-TMAX-GE92 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape