WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
34%
AIFS
33%
EPS
17%
WN2
8%
ICON
3%
Consensus
7%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 18.3¢Risks 18.30u
VS
ICONNO 81.7¢Risks 81.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +81.70u · ICON −81.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 33.1% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00AIFS Single: 33.1% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.1% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 14:4610-20 17:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:0026.5%16.6%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0026.5%16.6%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:0026.5%16.6%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0026.5%16.6%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0026.5%16.6%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0026.5%16.6%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T15:32:55+00:0026.5%16.8%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T16:18:04+00:0026.5%16.8%10.1%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:0033.1%16.8%8.5%33.8%2.8%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:0033.1%16.8%8.5%33.8%2.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES34%88.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single33%89.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble17%86.6°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%84.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON3%72.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend2%84.0°F3.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261027-TMAX-GE92
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗