— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
83¢
wn2
80¢
hres
76¢
rrfs
63¢
ndfd
57¢
nbm
41¢
icon
39¢
eps
29¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F32¢
86–87°F29¢
88–89°F13¢
90–91°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,366 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.569 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260909-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape