KPIT / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

76%

39%

29%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

EPSNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · EPS −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:22+00:00	80.5%	34.9%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T14:25:56+00:00	80.5%	34.9%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T14:27:38+00:00	80.5%	34.9%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:44+00:00	80.5%	34.9%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:47+00:00	80.5%	34.9%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	80.5%	31.8%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	80.5%	31.8%	63.5%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	80.5%	31.8%	66.6%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	80.5%	31.8%	66.6%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	80.5%	31.8%	66.6%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	80.5%	31.8%	66.6%	82.5%	29.4%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	66.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	66.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	66.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	66.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	73.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	73.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	83.0%	31.8%	73.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	73.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	73.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	73.6%	81.8%	41.0%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	73.6%	79.3%	41.0%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	73.6%	79.3%	41.0%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	78.9%	79.3%	41.0%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	78.9%	79.3%	41.0%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	82.4%	31.8%	78.9%	79.3%	41.0%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	83.1%	31.8%	78.9%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	83.1%	31.8%	78.9%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	83.1%	31.8%	78.9%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	83.1%	31.8%	78.9%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	83.1%	30.9%	78.9%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	83.1%	30.9%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	83.1%	30.9%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	83.1%	30.9%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	81.2%	30.9%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T15:49:07+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	76.1%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	69.3%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	69.3%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	69.3%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	81.2%	29.4%	69.3%	81.6%	46.6%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	69.3%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	69.3%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	69.3%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	69.3%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-08T22:36:03+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	69.3%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	83.7%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	75.2%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	80.5%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	80.5%	76.2%	38.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	83.1%	29.4%	80.5%	76.2%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	89.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	88.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	88.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	86.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	84.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	84.3°F	2.2°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260909-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 86°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗