— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
55¢
nbm
44¢
aifs
36¢
icon
36¢
wn2
25¢
hres
23¢
eps
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F31¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,639 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.565 vs climatology 9.303.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape