KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

36%

25%

23%

15%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.7¢Risks 25.70u

EPSNO 74.3¢Risks 74.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.30u · EPS −74.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	47.8%	60.9%	77.8%	79.2%	85.2%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	47.8%	60.9%	77.8%	79.2%	85.2%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	47.8%	60.9%	77.8%	79.2%	78.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	47.8%	60.9%	36.8%	79.2%	78.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	47.8%	60.9%	36.8%	79.2%	78.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	47.8%	60.9%	36.8%	79.2%	78.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	36.8%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	36.8%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	36.8%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	36.8%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	36.8%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	56.7%	60.9%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	50.0%	82.4%	78.5%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	50.0%	82.4%	45.8%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	28.7%	82.4%	45.8%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	28.7%	82.4%	45.8%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	28.7%	82.4%	45.8%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	45.2%	44.8%	28.7%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	45.2%	44.8%	28.7%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	45.2%	44.8%	28.7%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	45.2%	44.8%	28.7%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	45.2%	44.8%	28.7%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	45.2%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	45.2%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	45.2%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	45.8%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	46.5%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	46.5%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	46.5%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	18.5%	64.6%	77.8%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	51.0%	64.6%	77.8%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	51.0%	64.6%	77.8%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	46.8%	34.8%	51.0%	64.6%	77.8%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	51.0%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	51.0%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	51.0%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	51.0%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	51.0%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	34.9%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	60.2%	34.8%	34.9%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	60.2%	35.2%	34.9%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	64.0%	32.7%	34.9%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	64.0%	32.7%	34.9%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	40.0%	15.4%	22.7%	27.1%	78.6%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	40.0%	15.4%	22.7%	27.1%	78.6%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	40.0%	15.4%	22.7%	27.1%	35.8%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	40.0%	15.4%	25.1%	27.1%	35.8%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	40.0%	15.4%	25.1%	27.1%	35.8%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	40.0%	15.4%	25.1%	27.1%	35.8%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	55.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	36.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	36.0%	15.4%	25.1%	23.3%	35.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	82.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	36%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	80.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	79.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	78.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 84°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗