— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
90¢
aifs
59¢
ndfd
59¢
nbm
59¢
eps
57¢
now
38¢
rrfs
38¢
hrrr
35¢
hres
34¢
icon
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F32¢
84–85°F18¢
86–87°F5¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,795 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.559 vs climatology 9.269.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape