KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

59%

57%

34%

12%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.7¢Risks 50.65u

ICONNO 49.3¢Risks 49.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.35u · ICON −49.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	89.5%	26.9%	53.5%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	89.5%	26.9%	53.5%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	89.5%	26.9%	86.6%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	88.3%	26.9%	86.6%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	88.3%	26.9%	86.6%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	51.5%	59.1%	88.3%	26.9%	86.6%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	88.3%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	88.3%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	88.3%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	88.3%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-11T22:47:02+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	88.3%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	89.1%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	89.1%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	41.1%	59.1%	89.1%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	27.5%	59.1%	89.1%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	27.5%	59.1%	89.1%	25.0%	86.6%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	31.5%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	94.5%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	31.5%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	94.5%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	31.5%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	94.5%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	31.5%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	94.5%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	31.5%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	94.5%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	31.5%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	94.5%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	86.7%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	86.7%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	86.7%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	89.2%	88.4%	86.7%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	89.2%	74.2%	86.7%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	86.6%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	86.6%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	64.8%	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	86.6%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	73.9%	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	86.6%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	73.9%	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	86.6%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	73.9%	88.3%	86.7%	74.2%	86.6%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	50.9%	70.3%	86.1%	58.6%	11.8%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	50.9%	70.3%	86.1%	58.6%	11.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	50.9%	70.3%	89.5%	58.6%	11.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	50.9%	70.3%	89.5%	58.6%	11.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	50.9%	70.3%	89.5%	58.6%	11.8%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	59.6%	70.3%	89.5%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	59.6%	70.3%	89.5%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	59.6%	70.3%	89.5%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	59.6%	70.3%	89.5%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	59.6%	70.3%	89.5%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	59.6%	66.0%	90.3%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	59.6%	66.0%	90.3%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	59.6%	66.0%	90.3%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	48.1%	66.0%	90.3%	82.3%	6.5%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	48.1%	66.0%	90.3%	82.3%	6.4%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	48.1%	56.8%	90.3%	82.3%	6.4%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	48.1%	56.8%	90.3%	82.3%	6.4%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	48.1%	56.8%	90.3%	83.9%	12.4%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	48.1%	56.8%	86.9%	83.9%	12.4%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	48.1%	56.8%	86.9%	83.9%	12.4%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	48.1%	56.8%	86.9%	83.9%	12.4%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	86.9%	33.6%	12.4%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	86.9%	33.6%	12.4%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	86.9%	33.6%	12.4%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	86.9%	33.6%	12.4%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	86.9%	33.6%	12.4%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	59.6%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-17T02:12:03+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	12.4%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	88.1%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	61.5%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	59.1%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	59.1%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	59.1%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	59.1%	56.8%	89.8%	34.5%	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	85.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	82.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	80.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	77.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗