— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
eps
89¢
aifs
57¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
44¢
hres
36¢
rrfs
25¢
icon
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F24¢
64–65°F29¢
66–67°F20¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,055 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.207.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape