KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

89%

57%

36%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

ICONNO 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.70u · ICON −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	73.2%	96.2%	99.8%	52.4%	60.0%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	73.2%	96.2%	99.8%	52.4%	60.0%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	73.2%	96.2%	99.8%	52.4%	72.3%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	73.2%	96.2%	99.8%	52.4%	72.3%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	73.2%	96.2%	99.8%	52.4%	72.3%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	73.2%	96.2%	99.8%	52.4%	72.3%
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	67.5%	96.2%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	67.5%	96.2%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	67.5%	96.2%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	67.5%	96.2%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	67.5%	96.2%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	67.5%	99.0%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	67.5%	99.0%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	67.5%	99.0%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	63.3%	99.0%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	63.3%	99.0%	99.8%	35.3%	72.3%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	65.0%	99.3%	99.8%	57.0%	57.2%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	65.0%	99.3%	99.8%	57.0%	57.2%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	65.0%	99.3%	99.8%	57.0%	39.9%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	65.0%	99.3%	99.8%	57.0%	39.9%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	65.0%	99.3%	99.8%	57.0%	39.9%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	65.0%	99.3%	99.8%	57.0%	39.9%
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	62.1%	99.3%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	62.1%	99.3%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	62.1%	99.3%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	62.1%	99.3%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	62.1%	99.3%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	62.1%	92.2%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	62.1%	92.2%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	62.1%	92.2%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	58.5%	92.2%	99.8%	41.4%	39.9%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	58.5%	92.1%	99.8%	41.4%	38.8%
2026-09-20T15:18:42+00:00	58.5%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	38.8%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	58.5%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	38.8%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	58.5%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	58.5%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	58.5%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	58.5%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.5%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	54.7%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	20.6%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	56.6%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	52.9%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	52.9%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	52.9%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	52.9%	91.9%	99.8%	41.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	52.9%	91.9%	99.8%	36.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	52.9%	88.8%	99.8%	36.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	52.9%	88.8%	99.8%	36.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	52.9%	88.8%	99.8%	36.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	56.8%	88.7%	99.8%	36.4%	8.8%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	56.8%	88.7%	99.8%	36.4%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	66.7°F	2.6°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	62.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗