— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
eps
54¢
icon
47¢
wn2
41¢
aifs
20¢
hres
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,651 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.513 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape