KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Sep 16 · 22:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

47%

41%

20%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

HRESNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.45u · HRES −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	19.4%	55.7%	52.3%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	19.4%	55.7%	52.3%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	19.4%	55.7%	52.3%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	19.4%	55.7%	52.3%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	19.4%	55.7%	52.3%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	19.4%	59.9%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	19.4%	59.9%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	19.4%	59.9%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	14.8%	59.9%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	14.8%	59.9%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	14.8%	53.5%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	14.8%	53.5%	47.5%	32.0%	43.9%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	14.8%	53.5%	47.5%	36.1%	47.2%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	14.8%	53.5%	40.9%	36.1%	47.2%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	14.8%	53.5%	40.9%	36.1%	47.2%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	14.8%	53.5%	40.9%	36.1%	47.2%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	19.9%	53.5%	40.9%	13.6%	47.2%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	19.9%	53.5%	40.9%	13.6%	47.2%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	19.9%	53.5%	40.9%	13.6%	47.2%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	19.9%	53.5%	40.9%	13.6%	47.2%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	19.9%	53.5%	40.9%	13.6%	47.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	75.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	69.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.5°F	8.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗