daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Fri Oct 2

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 2

2¢

american +6310 · decimal 64.1

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		31¢
eps		26¢
aifs		9¢
nbm		6¢
hres		3¢
icon		3¢
rrfs		0¢
ndfd		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F2¢

70–71°F8¢

72–73°F20¢

74–75°F28¢

76–77°F24¢

78–79°F13¢

80–81°F4¢

82–83°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,523 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.066.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape