KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 02 · 04:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

26%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 17.0¢Risks 16.95u

ICONNO 83.0¢Risks 83.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.05u · ICON −83.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	80.6%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	80.6%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	80.6%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	80.6%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	80.6%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	47.1%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	72.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	60.5%	4.1%	29.1%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	41.9%	4.1%	29.1%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	41.9%	4.1%	29.1%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	7.5%	26.8%	41.9%	4.1%	29.1%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	9.5%	26.8%	41.9%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	9.5%	26.8%	41.9%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	9.5%	26.8%	41.9%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	9.5%	26.8%	41.9%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	9.5%	26.8%	41.9%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	9.5%	17.6%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	9.5%	17.6%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	9.5%	17.6%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	47.0%	17.6%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00	47.0%	17.7%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	47.0%	18.1%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	47.0%	18.1%	49.1%	9.3%	29.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	47.0%	18.1%	49.1%	9.3%	13.5%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	47.0%	18.1%	49.1%	9.3%	13.5%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	47.0%	18.1%	49.1%	9.3%	13.5%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	47.0%	18.1%	49.1%	9.3%	13.5%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	49.1%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	49.1%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	49.1%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	49.1%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	49.1%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	11.1%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	43.9%	6.0%	26.3%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	36.2%	6.0%	26.3%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	36.2%	6.0%	26.3%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	8.8%	18.1%	36.2%	6.0%	26.3%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	7.2%	18.1%	36.2%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	7.2%	18.1%	36.2%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	7.2%	18.1%	36.2%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	7.2%	18.1%	36.2%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	7.2%	18.1%	36.2%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	7.2%	26.1%	43.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	7.2%	26.1%	43.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	7.2%	26.1%	43.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	7.5%	26.1%	43.4%	3.1%	26.2%
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	7.5%	26.1%	43.4%	3.1%	26.2%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	7.5%	26.3%	43.4%	3.1%	26.2%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	7.5%	26.3%	43.4%	3.1%	26.2%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	7.5%	26.3%	34.3%	3.1%	22.5%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	7.5%	26.3%	34.3%	3.1%	22.5%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	7.5%	26.3%	34.3%	3.1%	22.5%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	7.5%	26.3%	34.3%	3.1%	22.5%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	34.3%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	34.3%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	34.3%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	34.3%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	69.4%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	50.0%	8.2%	22.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	81.7%	8.2%	13.1%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	81.7%	8.2%	13.1%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	81.7%	8.2%	13.1%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	90.2%	26.3%	81.7%	8.2%	13.1%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	65.1%	26.3%	81.7%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	65.1%	26.3%	81.7%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	65.1%	26.3%	81.7%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	65.1%	26.3%	81.7%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	65.1%	29.9%	79.9%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	65.1%	29.9%	79.9%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	65.1%	29.9%	79.9%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	65.1%	29.9%	79.9%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	70.5%	29.9%	79.8%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	70.5%	29.9%	79.8%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	70.5%	30.2%	79.8%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	70.5%	30.2%	79.8%	38.3%	13.1%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	70.5%	30.2%	77.6%	38.1%	12.7%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	70.5%	30.2%	77.6%	38.1%	12.7%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	70.5%	30.2%	77.6%	38.1%	12.7%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	70.5%	30.2%	77.6%	38.1%	12.7%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.3%	12.7%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.3%	12.7%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.3%	12.7%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.3%	12.7%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	85.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	77.6%	34.5%	12.7%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	81.2%	34.5%	7.2%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	81.2%	34.5%	7.2%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	84.0%	30.2%	81.2%	34.5%	7.2%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	48.2%	22.8%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	48.2%	22.8%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	48.2%	22.8%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	32.3%	22.8%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	32.3%	22.8%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	32.3%	23.5%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	32.3%	23.5%	81.2%	9.1%	7.2%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	32.3%	23.5%	81.2%	9.1%	3.8%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	32.3%	23.5%	66.7%	9.1%	3.8%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	32.3%	23.5%	66.7%	9.1%	3.8%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	32.3%	23.5%	66.7%	9.1%	3.8%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	66.7%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	66.7%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	66.7%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	66.7%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	66.7%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00	5.4%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	3.8%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	53.2%	3.8%	1.2%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	3.8%	1.2%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	3.8%	1.2%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	3.8%	1.2%
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	6.2%	23.5%	56.4%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T10:34:06+00:00	9.7%	23.5%	56.4%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	9.7%	23.6%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	9.7%	23.6%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	9.7%	23.6%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	5.6%	23.6%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	5.6%	23.6%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	5.6%	23.3%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00	5.6%	23.3%	51.1%	10.7%	1.2%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	5.6%	23.3%	51.1%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	5.6%	23.3%	35.7%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	5.6%	23.3%	35.7%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	5.6%	23.3%	35.7%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	35.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	35.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	35.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	35.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	35.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	28.7%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	36.8%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	36.8%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	6.5%	23.3%	36.8%	2.3%	2.8%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	9.5%	23.3%	36.8%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	9.5%	23.3%	36.8%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	9.5%	23.3%	36.8%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	9.5%	23.3%	36.8%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	9.5%	23.3%	36.8%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	9.5%	25.6%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	9.5%	25.6%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	9.5%	25.6%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T13:44:39+00:00	9.9%	25.6%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	9.8%	25.6%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	9.8%	26.1%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	9.8%	26.1%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	9.8%	26.1%	34.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	9.8%	26.1%	33.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	9.8%	26.1%	33.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	9.8%	26.1%	33.2%	6.0%	2.8%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	33.2%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	33.2%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	33.2%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	33.2%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	33.2%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	9.4%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	9.0%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	9.0%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	9.0%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	9.0%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	9.0%	26.1%	31.1%	3.4%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	31%	77.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	77.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	73.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗