— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
61¢
nbm
57¢
ndfd
56¢
wn2
56¢
hres
53¢
rrfs
45¢
icon
38¢
eps
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F32¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,627 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 9.038.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape