KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

56%

53%

38%

25%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

EPSNO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.75u · EPS −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	62.7%	69.4%	73.8%	16.5%	41.1%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	62.7%	69.4%	73.8%	16.5%	41.1%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	62.7%	69.4%	73.8%	16.5%	34.8%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	62.7%	69.4%	77.6%	16.5%	34.8%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	62.7%	69.4%	77.6%	16.5%	34.8%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	62.7%	69.4%	77.6%	16.5%	34.8%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	56.7%	69.4%	77.6%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	56.7%	69.4%	77.6%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	56.7%	69.4%	77.6%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	56.7%	69.4%	77.6%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	56.7%	69.4%	77.6%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	56.7%	57.5%	81.7%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	56.7%	57.5%	81.7%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	56.7%	57.5%	81.7%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	54.5%	57.5%	81.7%	43.4%	34.8%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	81.9%	62.6%	95.5%	58.9%	43.8%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	81.9%	62.6%	90.5%	58.9%	46.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	81.9%	62.6%	90.5%	58.9%	46.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	81.9%	62.6%	90.5%	58.9%	46.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	81.2%	62.6%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	81.2%	62.6%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	81.2%	62.6%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	81.2%	62.6%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	81.2%	62.6%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	81.2%	58.4%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	81.2%	58.4%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	81.2%	58.4%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	81.2%	58.4%	90.5%	45.3%	46.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	81.2%	58.4%	90.5%	45.2%	46.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	81.2%	59.7%	90.5%	45.2%	46.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	81.2%	59.7%	90.5%	45.2%	46.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	81.2%	59.7%	90.5%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	81.2%	59.7%	78.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	81.2%	59.7%	78.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	81.2%	59.7%	78.4%	45.2%	55.0%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	78.4%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	78.4%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	78.4%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	78.4%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	78.4%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00	70.5%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	55.0%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	63.8%	52.4%	38.9%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	52.4%	38.9%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	52.4%	38.9%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	52.4%	38.9%
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	69.0%	59.7%	61.0%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T10:34:06+00:00	63.5%	59.7%	61.0%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	63.5%	30.9%	60.7%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	63.5%	30.9%	60.7%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	63.5%	30.9%	60.7%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	70.2%	30.9%	60.7%	34.5%	38.9%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	69.3%	30.9%	60.6%	34.4%	38.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	69.3%	27.5%	60.6%	34.4%	38.9%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	73.5%	25.1%	64.2%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	73.5%	25.1%	64.2%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	73.5%	25.1%	64.2%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	73.5%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	73.5%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	73.5%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	67.3%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	55.6%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	55.6%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	55.6%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	55.6%	52.9%	37.9%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	61.4%	25.1%	55.6%	52.9%	37.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	68.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	67.9°F	2.1°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	66.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	65.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗