daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Oct 3

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 3

2¢

american +4530 · decimal 46.3

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		13¢
wn2		12¢
aifs		6¢
nbm		4¢
hres		3¢
icon		1¢
ndfd		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F6¢

64–65°F17¢

66–67°F28¢

68–69°F28¢

70–71°F15¢

72–73°F5¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,526 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.733 vs climatology 9.052.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape