KPIT / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 7.4¢Risks 3.68u

ICONNO 92.7¢Risks 46.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.33u · ICON −46.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	0.6%	21.4%	16.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	0.6%	21.4%	16.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	0.6%	21.4%	16.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	0.6%	21.4%	16.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	0.6%	21.4%	16.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	0.6%	11.1%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	0.6%	11.1%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	0.6%	11.1%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	0.1%	11.1%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T14:32:03+00:00	0.1%	11.1%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	0.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	0.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.5%	11.2%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	0.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.5%	7.4%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	0.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.5%	7.4%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	0.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.5%	7.4%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	0.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.5%	7.4%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	2.5%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	3.3%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	3.3%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T03:19:40+00:00	3.3%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	3.3%	11.8%	3.4%	0.2%	7.4%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	1.8%	11.8%	4.4%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	1.8%	11.0%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	1.8%	11.0%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	1.8%	11.0%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	1.6%	11.0%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T14:40:01+00:00	1.6%	11.0%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	1.6%	11.4%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	1.6%	11.4%	4.1%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	4.3%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	4.3%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	4.3%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	4.3%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	7.4%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	14.0%	3.9%	1.0%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	43.0%	3.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	43.0%	3.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	43.0%	3.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	43.0%	3.9%	1.2%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	43.0%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	43.0%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	43.0%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	43.0%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	8.4%	12.9%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	8.4%	12.9%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	8.4%	12.9%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	8.4%	12.9%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	5.9%	12.9%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	5.9%	12.9%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	14.2%	4.0%	1.2%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	4.0%	1.3%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	4.0%	1.3%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	4.0%	1.3%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	4.0%	1.3%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	17.7%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	5.9%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	6.4%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	6.4%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	6.4%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	6.4%	13.4%	12.2%	3.3%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	13%	70.2°F	8.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	74.6°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	66.6°F	7.5°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	68.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	1%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261003-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗