— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
hres
97¢
aifs
93¢
rrfs
80¢
nbm
78¢
eps
69¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
35¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F28¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,679 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.523 vs climatology 9.027.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape