KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

93%

69%

35%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

ICONNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.45u · ICON −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	23.6%	55.5%	77.3%	19.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	23.6%	55.5%	77.3%	19.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	23.6%	55.5%	77.3%	19.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	23.6%	55.5%	77.3%	19.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	23.6%	55.5%	77.3%	19.0%	27.4%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	47.7%	62.8%	94.8%	80.5%	23.4%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	47.7%	62.8%	92.1%	80.5%	79.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	47.7%	62.8%	92.1%	80.5%	79.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	47.7%	62.8%	92.1%	80.5%	79.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	91.3%	62.8%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	91.3%	62.8%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	91.3%	62.8%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	91.3%	62.8%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	91.3%	62.8%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	91.3%	51.0%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	91.3%	51.0%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	91.3%	51.0%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	74.2%	51.0%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	74.2%	51.0%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	74.2%	53.1%	92.1%	83.2%	79.6%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	70.8%	78.1%	60.8%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	78.1%	60.8%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	78.1%	60.8%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	78.1%	60.8%
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	91.0%	53.1%	69.1%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T10:34:06+00:00	91.7%	53.1%	69.1%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	91.7%	64.9%	74.5%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	91.7%	64.9%	74.5%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	91.7%	64.9%	74.5%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	88.3%	64.9%	74.5%	81.5%	60.8%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	88.3%	65.0%	74.4%	81.5%	60.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	88.3%	60.8%	74.4%	81.5%	60.9%
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00	88.3%	60.8%	74.4%	81.5%	60.9%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	88.3%	60.8%	74.4%	81.5%	35.1%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	88.3%	60.8%	84.4%	81.5%	35.1%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	88.3%	60.8%	84.4%	81.5%	35.1%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	88.3%	60.8%	84.4%	81.5%	35.1%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	84.4%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	84.4%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	84.4%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	84.4%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	84.4%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	78.3%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	78.3%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	86.5%	60.8%	78.3%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	84.5%	60.8%	78.3%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	84.5%	60.8%	78.3%	33.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	90.9%	60.1%	85.9%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	90.9%	60.1%	85.9%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	90.9%	60.1%	85.9%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	90.9%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	90.9%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:06+00:00	90.9%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	93.2%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	93.2%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	93.2%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	93.2%	60.1%	98.7%	89.8%	35.1%
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	93.2%	69.1%	98.0%	97.1%	35.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	93.2%	69.1%	98.0%	97.1%	35.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:20+00:00	93.2%	69.1%	98.0%	97.1%	35.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	93.2%	69.1%	98.0%	97.1%	35.1%
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	93.2%	69.1%	98.0%	97.1%	35.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	75.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	73.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 27 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗