— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
eps
97¢
aifs
92¢
nbm
75¢
hres
71¢
icon
70¢
ndfd
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F9¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F20¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,376 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.198 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape