KPIT / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

92%

71%

70%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.0¢Risks 84.00u

ICONNO 16.0¢Risks 16.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.00u · ICON −16.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	74.7%	86.4%	94.2%	59.9%	52.0%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	74.7%	86.4%	94.2%	59.9%	52.0%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	74.7%	86.4%	94.2%	59.9%	52.0%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	74.7%	86.4%	94.2%	59.9%	52.0%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	64.0%	91.1%	90.9%	57.5%	57.3%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	64.0%	91.1%	89.5%	57.5%	86.5%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	64.0%	91.1%	89.5%	57.5%	86.5%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	64.0%	91.1%	89.5%	57.5%	86.5%
2026-09-29T07:22:18+00:00	83.2%	91.1%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	83.2%	91.1%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	83.2%	91.1%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	83.2%	91.1%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	83.2%	91.1%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	83.2%	90.0%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	83.2%	90.0%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	83.2%	90.0%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	68.8%	90.0%	89.5%	72.2%	86.5%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	68.8%	89.9%	89.5%	71.7%	86.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	68.8%	90.7%	89.5%	71.7%	86.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	68.8%	90.8%	89.5%	71.7%	86.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	68.8%	90.8%	89.5%	71.7%	52.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	68.8%	90.8%	91.4%	71.7%	52.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	68.8%	90.8%	91.4%	71.7%	52.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	68.8%	90.8%	91.4%	71.7%	52.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00	71.4%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.3%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	87.4%	50.6%	64.1%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	64.1%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	64.1%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	50.6%	64.1%
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	81.7%	90.8%	91.4%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T10:34:07+00:00	97.1%	90.8%	91.4%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	97.1%	96.9%	94.5%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	97.1%	96.9%	94.5%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	97.1%	96.9%	94.5%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	89.6%	96.9%	94.5%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	89.6%	96.9%	94.5%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	89.6%	95.6%	94.5%	71.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	85.6%	95.8%	94.7%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	85.6%	95.8%	94.7%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	85.6%	95.8%	94.7%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	85.6%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	85.6%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:06+00:00	85.6%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	92.3%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	92.3%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	92.3%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	92.3%	95.8%	97.6%	64.8%	64.1%
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	92.3%	96.9%	97.8%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	92.3%	96.9%	97.8%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:20+00:00	92.3%	96.9%	97.8%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	92.3%	96.9%	97.8%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	92.7%	96.9%	97.8%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	92.7%	96.9%	98.6%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-10-02T17:00:06+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.6%	75.5%	69.6%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.4%	71.1%	69.6%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.4%	71.1%	69.6%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.4%	71.1%	69.6%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	98.4%	71.1%	69.6%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	91.7%	97.1%	98.4%	71.1%	69.6%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	91.7%	97.1%	98.4%	71.1%	69.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	68.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	67.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	63.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261005-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗