— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
aifs
96¢
eps
83¢
hres
80¢
icon
79¢
nbm
68¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 13,328 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.863 vs climatology 9.052.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape