KPIT / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

83%

80%

79%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.3¢Risks 89.35u

ICONNO 10.7¢Risks 10.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.65u · ICON −10.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T07:31:46+00:00	87.8%	51.5%	56.1%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00	87.8%	51.5%	56.1%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	87.8%	51.5%	56.1%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	87.8%	51.5%	56.1%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T10:34:08+00:00	95.3%	51.5%	56.1%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00	95.3%	55.8%	60.5%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	95.3%	55.8%	60.5%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00	95.3%	55.8%	60.5%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00	87.9%	55.8%	60.5%	80.3%	17.8%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	88.0%	55.8%	60.5%	80.3%	18.1%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	88.0%	52.4%	60.5%	80.3%	18.1%
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00	88.0%	52.4%	60.5%	80.3%	18.1%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	88.0%	52.4%	60.5%	80.3%	75.1%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	88.0%	52.4%	56.5%	80.3%	75.1%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	88.0%	52.4%	56.5%	80.3%	75.1%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	88.0%	52.4%	56.5%	80.3%	75.1%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	56.5%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	56.5%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	56.5%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	56.5%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	56.5%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	94.8%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	72.4%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	65.2%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	65.2%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	86.1%	52.4%	65.2%	76.6%	75.1%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	87.9%	52.4%	65.2%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	87.9%	52.4%	65.2%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	87.9%	52.4%	65.2%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	87.9%	52.4%	65.2%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	87.9%	52.4%	65.2%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	87.9%	49.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	87.9%	49.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	87.9%	49.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:40+00:00	90.6%	49.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	90.6%	49.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	90.6%	51.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	90.6%	51.0%	59.6%	65.9%	75.1%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	90.6%	51.0%	59.6%	66.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	90.6%	51.0%	64.6%	66.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	90.6%	51.0%	64.6%	66.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	90.6%	51.0%	64.6%	66.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	64.6%	84.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	64.6%	84.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	64.6%	84.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	64.6%	84.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	64.6%	84.1%	75.1%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	90.3%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	63.7%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:07+00:00	89.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	93.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	93.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	93.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	93.6%	51.0%	97.5%	83.7%	75.1%
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	93.6%	82.6%	99.2%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	93.6%	82.6%	99.2%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	93.6%	82.6%	99.2%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	93.6%	82.6%	99.2%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	94.8%	82.6%	99.2%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	94.8%	82.6%	99.5%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	94.8%	83.4%	99.5%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	94.8%	83.4%	99.5%	85.4%	75.1%
2026-10-02T17:00:07+00:00	94.8%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	94.8%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	94.8%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	94.8%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.4%	85.4%	79.1%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.6%	80.1%	79.1%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.6%	80.1%	79.1%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.6%	80.1%	79.1%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	96.0%	83.4%	99.6%	80.1%	79.1%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	96.5%	83.4%	99.6%	80.1%	79.1%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	96.5%	83.4%	99.6%	80.1%	79.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	74.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	68.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	70.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	79%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261007-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 30 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗