daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Fri Oct 9

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Fri Oct 9

2¢

american +6352 · decimal 64.52

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		7¢
wn2		5¢
nbm		5¢
ndfd		3¢
eps		3¢
hres		2¢
icon		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F2¢

66–67°F11¢

68–69°F28¢

70–71°F33¢

72–73°F19¢

74–75°F6¢

76–77°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,937 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.523 vs climatology 8.965.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape