KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 4.0¢Risks 1.01u

ICONNO 96.0¢Risks 23.99u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.99u · ICON −23.99u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	51.4%	6.1%	17.8%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	51.4%	6.1%	17.8%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	51.4%	6.1%	17.8%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	51.4%	6.1%	17.8%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	17.8%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	17.4%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	17.4%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	17.4%	55.0%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:07+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	72.4%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	31.2%	55.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	29.5%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T03:32:56+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	32.0%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	36.5%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	36.5%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	36.5%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	63.4%	6.1%	36.5%	43.1%	39.1%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	68.8%	6.1%	36.5%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	68.8%	6.1%	36.5%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	68.8%	6.1%	36.5%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	68.8%	6.1%	36.5%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	68.8%	3.4%	36.1%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	68.8%	3.4%	36.1%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	68.8%	3.4%	36.1%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	68.8%	3.4%	36.1%	22.0%	40.8%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	59.7%	3.4%	36.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T14:54:51+00:00	59.7%	3.8%	36.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	59.7%	3.7%	36.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	59.7%	3.7%	36.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	59.7%	3.7%	42.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	59.7%	3.7%	42.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	59.7%	3.7%	42.1%	22.4%	40.8%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	62.6%	3.7%	42.1%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	62.6%	3.7%	42.1%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	62.6%	3.7%	42.1%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	62.6%	3.7%	42.1%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	62.6%	3.7%	42.1%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	61.9%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	61.9%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	61.9%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	30.5%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	27.4%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	27.4%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	28.6%	3.7%	27.4%	44.0%	29.6%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	20.2%	3.7%	27.4%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	20.2%	3.7%	27.4%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	20.2%	3.7%	27.4%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	20.2%	3.7%	27.4%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	20.2%	3.7%	27.4%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	15.3%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	15.3%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	15.3%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	15.3%	32.0%	3.0%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	20.2%	3.5%	15.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	20.2%	3.3%	15.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	20.2%	3.3%	15.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	20.2%	3.3%	15.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	20.2%	3.3%	9.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	20.2%	3.3%	9.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	20.2%	3.3%	9.5%	32.1%	3.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	9.5%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	9.5%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	9.5%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	9.5%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	9.5%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	11.1%	3.3%	14.3%	8.7%	5.3%
2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	16.0%	3.3%	14.3%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	16.0%	2.8%	13.9%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	16.0%	2.8%	13.9%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	16.0%	2.8%	13.9%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	7.1%	2.8%	13.9%	2.5%	8.2%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	7.1%	2.9%	14.0%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	7.1%	2.7%	14.0%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	7.1%	2.7%	14.0%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	7.1%	2.7%	14.0%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	7.1%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	7.1%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	7.1%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	8.5%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	7.7%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	5.2%	2.5%	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	7%	70.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	67.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	66.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 02 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗