daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Oct 10

Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 10

50¢

american -100 · decimal 2.0

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 71°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		87¢
wn2		79¢
hres		72¢
ndfd		59¢
nbm		59¢
eps		29¢
icon		5¢
now		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F8¢

68–69°F24¢

70–71°F35¢

72–73°F24¢

74–75°F8¢

76–77°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,041 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.52 vs climatology 8.934.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape