KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

72%

29%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	90.5%	53.3%	88.1%	85.1%	43.9%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	90.5%	53.3%	88.1%	85.1%	43.9%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	90.5%	53.3%	90.4%	85.1%	43.9%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	90.5%	53.3%	90.4%	85.1%	43.9%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	90.5%	53.3%	90.4%	85.1%	43.9%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	73.3%	53.3%	90.4%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	73.3%	53.3%	90.4%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	73.3%	53.3%	90.4%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	73.3%	53.3%	90.4%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	73.3%	53.3%	90.4%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	73.3%	50.0%	80.7%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	73.3%	50.0%	80.7%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	73.3%	50.0%	80.7%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	37.4%	50.0%	80.7%	82.6%	79.6%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	37.4%	50.0%	80.6%	82.6%	80.0%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	77.0%	76.0%	99.3%	76.6%	56.7%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	77.0%	76.0%	99.3%	76.6%	56.7%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	77.0%	76.0%	95.6%	76.6%	56.7%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	77.0%	76.0%	95.6%	76.6%	56.7%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	77.0%	76.0%	95.6%	76.6%	56.7%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	77.0%	76.0%	95.6%	76.6%	56.7%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	95.6%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	95.6%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	95.6%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	95.6%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	84.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	86.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	86.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	86.6%	76.0%	97.4%	95.2%	50.0%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	80.4%	28.9%	93.8%	72.2%	7.8%
2026-10-10T15:39:24+00:00	80.4%	28.9%	93.8%	72.2%	7.8%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	80.4%	28.9%	93.8%	72.2%	7.8%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	80.4%	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	7.8%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	80.4%	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	7.8%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	80.4%	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	7.8%
2026-10-10T19:25:30+00:00	—	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	5.2%
2026-10-10T20:10:39+00:00	—	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	5.2%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	—	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	5.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	—	28.9%	79.0%	72.2%	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	72.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	69.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 04 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗