daily prop · Pittsburgh, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Oct 10

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sat Oct 10

2¢

american +4778 · decimal 48.78

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		28¢
aifs		24¢
hres		10¢
eps		4¢
rrfs		3¢
ndfd		2¢
nbm		2¢
icon		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

66–67°F1¢

68–69°F3¢

70–71°F10¢

72–73°F21¢

74–75°F27¢

76–77°F22¢

78–79°F11¢

80–81°F4¢

82–83°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,838 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.698 vs climatology 8.977.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape