KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 10 · 04:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

24%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 14.2¢Risks 14.15u

ICONNO 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +85.85u · ICON −85.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	48.6%	7.5%	23.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	48.6%	7.5%	23.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	48.6%	7.5%	23.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	48.6%	7.5%	23.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	48.6%	8.3%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	48.6%	8.3%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	48.6%	8.3%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	48.6%	8.3%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00	51.4%	8.3%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T14:54:51+00:00	51.4%	8.9%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	51.4%	8.9%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	51.4%	8.9%	29.1%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	51.4%	8.9%	38.0%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	51.4%	8.9%	38.0%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	51.4%	8.9%	38.0%	42.5%	20.8%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	38.0%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	38.0%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	38.0%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	38.0%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	38.0%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	60.6%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	40.3%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	45.1%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	45.1%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	52.1%	8.9%	45.1%	47.5%	19.1%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	24.3%	8.9%	45.1%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	24.3%	8.9%	45.1%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	24.3%	8.9%	45.1%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	24.3%	8.9%	45.1%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	24.3%	8.9%	45.1%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	24.3%	10.1%	24.5%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	24.3%	10.1%	24.5%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	24.3%	10.1%	24.5%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	5.0%	10.1%	24.5%	45.2%	42.5%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	5.0%	10.2%	24.6%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T15:06:40+00:00	5.0%	9.9%	24.6%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	5.0%	9.9%	24.6%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	5.0%	9.9%	24.6%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	5.0%	9.9%	5.8%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	5.0%	9.9%	5.8%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	5.0%	9.9%	5.8%	45.2%	43.1%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	5.8%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	5.8%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	5.8%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	5.8%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	5.8%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	57.5%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	28.6%	9.9%	32.9%	38.7%	36.9%
2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	32.9%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	32.9%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	32.9%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	32.9%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	8.7%	9.9%	32.9%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	8.7%	9.7%	38.3%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	8.7%	9.7%	38.3%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	8.7%	9.7%	38.3%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	38.3%	31.5%	12.4%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	11.9%	9.8%	38.4%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	38.4%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	38.4%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	38.4%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	11.9%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	12.8%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	39.6%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	39.6%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	39.6%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	39.6%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	39.6%	9.7%	36.5%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	39.6%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	39.6%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	39.6%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	58.8%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	33.5%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	26.7%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	41.4%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	41.4%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	41.4%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	41.4%	9.4%	74.0%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	41.4%	22.1%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	41.4%	22.1%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	41.4%	22.1%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	41.4%	22.1%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	21.7%	22.2%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	21.7%	22.2%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	21.7%	22.8%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	21.7%	22.8%	70.6%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	21.7%	22.8%	42.5%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	21.7%	22.8%	42.5%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	21.7%	22.8%	42.5%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	21.7%	22.8%	42.5%	31.4%	9.5%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	42.5%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	42.5%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	42.5%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	42.5%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	30.9%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	52.2%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	62.7%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	62.7%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	34.0%	22.8%	62.7%	60.3%	7.0%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	20.3%	22.8%	62.7%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	20.3%	22.8%	62.7%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	20.3%	22.8%	62.7%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	20.3%	22.8%	62.7%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	20.3%	22.8%	62.7%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	20.3%	20.1%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	20.3%	20.1%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	20.3%	20.1%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	18.4%	20.1%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	18.4%	20.2%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	18.4%	19.7%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	46.4%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	28.6%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	28.6%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	28.6%	33.6%	2.7%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00	19.6%	19.6%	28.6%	45.6%	3.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	19.6%	19.6%	28.6%	45.6%	3.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	19.6%	19.6%	28.6%	45.6%	3.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	19.6%	19.6%	28.6%	45.6%	3.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	19.6%	19.6%	28.6%	45.6%	3.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	19.6%	19.1%	22.8%	45.6%	3.8%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	19.6%	19.1%	22.8%	45.6%	3.8%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	19.6%	19.1%	22.8%	45.6%	3.8%
2026-10-08T01:35:59+00:00	33.9%	19.1%	22.8%	45.6%	3.8%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	33.9%	19.1%	22.8%	45.6%	3.8%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	50.0%	29.5%	0.4%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	50.0%	29.5%	0.4%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	50.0%	29.5%	0.4%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	50.0%	29.5%	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	50.0%	29.5%	0.4%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	50.0%	29.5%	0.4%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	50.0%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	50.0%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	50.0%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	50.0%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	50.0%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	25.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	22.9%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	39.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	39.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	29.6%	13.9%	39.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	30.9%	13.9%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	30.9%	13.9%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	30.9%	13.9%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	30.9%	13.9%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	30.9%	13.9%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	30.9%	13.9%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	30.9%	3.1%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	30.9%	3.1%	39.8%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	25.7%	3.1%	39.8%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	25.7%	3.1%	39.8%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T15:27:16+00:00	25.7%	3.5%	39.8%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	25.7%	3.5%	39.8%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	25.7%	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	25.7%	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	25.7%	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	25.7%	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	0.5%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	20.4%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	24.1%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	24.1%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	24.1%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	24.1%	3.5%	28.1%	9.9%	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	28%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	74.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	71.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	67.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗