— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
18¢
ndfd
14¢
aifs
13¢
icon
8¢
hres
7¢
nbm
2¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F0¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape