KPIT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.40u · EPS −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	50.0%	1.5%	47.0%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	50.0%	1.5%	47.0%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	50.0%	1.5%	47.0%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	50.0%	1.5%	47.0%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	50.0%	1.5%	47.0%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	50.0%	1.5%	45.2%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	45.2%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	45.2%	8.7%	8.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	53.5%	0.4%	45.3%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	53.5%	0.4%	45.3%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00	53.5%	0.7%	45.3%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	53.5%	0.7%	45.3%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	53.5%	0.7%	50.8%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	53.5%	0.7%	50.8%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	53.5%	0.7%	50.8%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	53.5%	0.7%	50.8%	9.0%	8.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	50.8%	13.7%	42.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	50.8%	13.7%	42.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	50.8%	13.7%	42.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	50.8%	13.7%	42.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	43.0%	13.7%	42.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	43.0%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	43.0%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	45.1%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	42.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	37.6%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	37.6%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	37.6%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	37.6%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	37.6%	0.7%	44.5%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	37.6%	0.1%	50.0%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	37.6%	0.1%	50.0%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	37.6%	0.1%	50.0%	13.8%	15.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	34.8%	0.1%	50.0%	15.1%	15.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	50.0%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	50.0%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	50.0%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	50.0%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	34.9%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	16.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	17.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	17.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	17.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	52.6%	15.1%	17.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	52.6%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:18+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	32.2%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	39.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	31.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	30.9%	0.1%	31.9%	13.1%	17.0%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	23.4%	0.1%	31.9%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	23.4%	0.1%	31.9%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	23.4%	0.1%	31.9%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	23.4%	0.1%	31.9%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	23.4%	0.1%	31.9%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	7.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	8.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:27+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	8.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	25.6%	7.3%	8.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	18.4%	7.3%	8.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	18.4%	7.3%	8.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	18.4%	7.3%	8.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	13.3%	0.0%	18.4%	7.3%	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	68.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	64.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	65.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗