daily prop · Raleigh, NC · Southeast · settles Thu Oct 1

Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 1

YES

settled · observed 89

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

86°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 0¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		94¢
rrfs		88¢
nbm		88¢
aifs		81¢
eps		63¢
hres		62¢
icon		38¢
wn2		25¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-09-25T18:08:43+00:00 · settled 2026-10-02T13:58:34+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape