KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

63%

62%

38%

25%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

WN2NO 47.0¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.05u · WN2 −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:43+00:00	76.8%	25.7%	37.9%	80.1%	63.6%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	76.8%	25.7%	37.9%	80.1%	63.6%
2026-09-25T19:39:25+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	37.9%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	37.9%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	37.9%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	37.9%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	37.9%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-25T23:25:37+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	82.1%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T01:41:03+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T02:26:19+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T03:11:42+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	63.6%
2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	38.7%	63.5%	60.8%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	41.3%	63.5%	60.8%
2026-09-26T06:12:24+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	41.3%	63.5%	60.8%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	84.0%	25.7%	41.3%	63.5%	60.8%
2026-09-26T07:42:50+00:00	78.5%	25.7%	41.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	78.5%	25.7%	41.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00	78.5%	25.7%	41.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	78.5%	25.7%	41.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T10:44:03+00:00	78.5%	25.7%	41.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	78.5%	65.8%	34.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	78.5%	65.8%	34.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	78.5%	65.8%	34.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T13:44:42+00:00	76.7%	65.8%	34.3%	70.8%	60.8%
2026-09-26T14:32:06+00:00	76.7%	65.8%	34.3%	70.9%	60.8%
2026-09-26T15:17:29+00:00	76.7%	67.2%	34.3%	70.9%	60.8%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	76.7%	67.2%	34.3%	70.9%	60.8%
2026-09-26T16:47:41+00:00	76.7%	67.2%	34.3%	70.9%	52.1%
2026-09-26T17:32:50+00:00	76.7%	67.2%	34.3%	70.9%	52.1%
2026-09-26T18:17:58+00:00	76.7%	67.2%	34.3%	70.9%	52.1%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	76.7%	67.2%	34.3%	70.9%	52.1%
2026-09-26T19:48:17+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	34.3%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	34.3%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	34.3%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-26T22:03:37+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	34.3%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-26T22:48:43+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	34.3%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T00:19:02+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	77.9%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T03:19:42+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	52.1%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	30.0%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-27T05:35:27+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	37.8%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	37.8%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	78.5%	67.2%	37.8%	70.3%	67.8%
2026-09-27T07:51:02+00:00	81.7%	67.2%	37.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T08:36:50+00:00	81.7%	67.2%	37.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	81.7%	67.2%	37.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	81.7%	67.2%	37.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	81.7%	67.2%	37.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T11:37:16+00:00	81.7%	81.1%	28.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	81.7%	81.1%	28.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T13:07:32+00:00	81.7%	81.1%	28.8%	73.8%	67.8%
2026-09-27T13:52:39+00:00	79.4%	81.1%	28.8%	73.8%	68.7%
2026-09-28T03:27:28+00:00	82.3%	84.1%	20.1%	67.6%	64.0%
2026-09-28T04:13:28+00:00	82.3%	84.1%	20.1%	67.6%	64.0%
2026-09-28T04:58:34+00:00	82.3%	84.1%	22.3%	67.6%	73.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00	82.3%	84.1%	22.3%	67.6%	73.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:54+00:00	82.3%	84.1%	22.3%	67.6%	73.9%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	82.3%	84.1%	22.3%	67.6%	73.9%
2026-09-28T07:59:19+00:00	83.7%	84.1%	22.3%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:27+00:00	83.7%	84.1%	22.3%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	83.7%	84.1%	22.3%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:38+00:00	83.7%	84.1%	22.3%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:46+00:00	83.7%	74.8%	20.8%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	83.7%	74.8%	20.8%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	83.7%	74.8%	20.8%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	83.7%	74.8%	20.8%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	80.8%	74.8%	20.9%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T14:48:32+00:00	80.8%	74.8%	20.9%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00	80.8%	77.3%	20.9%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00	80.8%	77.3%	20.9%	70.3%	73.9%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	80.8%	77.3%	17.9%	70.3%	68.7%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	80.8%	77.3%	17.9%	70.3%	68.7%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	80.8%	77.3%	17.9%	70.3%	68.7%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	80.8%	77.3%	17.9%	70.3%	68.7%
2026-09-28T20:04:43+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	17.9%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	17.9%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	17.9%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	17.9%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	81.4%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T02:05:36+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T04:21:19+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	15.2%	62.2%	68.7%
2026-09-29T05:06:53+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	21.7%	62.2%	69.5%
2026-09-29T05:52:02+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	21.7%	62.2%	69.5%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	82.1%	77.3%	21.7%	62.2%	69.5%
2026-09-29T07:22:21+00:00	83.1%	77.3%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T08:08:14+00:00	83.1%	77.3%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	83.1%	77.3%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	83.1%	77.3%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	83.1%	77.3%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T11:08:49+00:00	83.1%	69.0%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	83.1%	69.0%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	83.1%	69.0%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T13:24:15+00:00	84.3%	69.0%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T14:11:39+00:00	83.8%	69.0%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T14:56:51+00:00	83.8%	70.2%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T15:42:14+00:00	83.8%	70.3%	21.7%	69.5%	69.5%
2026-09-29T16:27:40+00:00	83.8%	70.3%	21.7%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:50+00:00	83.8%	70.3%	16.2%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	83.8%	70.3%	16.2%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	83.8%	70.3%	16.2%	69.5%	63.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	16.2%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:31+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	16.2%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:46+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	16.2%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	16.2%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:01+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	16.2%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:11+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:32+00:00	81.3%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:50+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:58+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:07+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:21+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	63.3%
2026-09-30T04:30:33+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	15.5%	67.8%	44.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	67.8%	44.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:27+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	67.8%	44.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:35+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	67.8%	44.4%
2026-09-30T07:31:51+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:12+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:33+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:39+00:00	82.0%	70.3%	20.7%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:20+00:00	82.7%	70.3%	20.7%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T11:19:57+00:00	82.7%	63.1%	17.5%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:13+00:00	82.7%	63.1%	17.5%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	82.7%	63.1%	17.5%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:24+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	17.5%	66.6%	44.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	17.6%	66.6%	44.3%
2026-09-30T15:08:14+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	17.6%	66.6%	44.3%
2026-09-30T15:53:26+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	17.6%	66.6%	44.3%
2026-09-30T16:38:48+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	17.6%	66.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T17:23:56+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	12.8%	66.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T18:09:03+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	12.8%	66.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	78.6%	63.1%	12.8%	66.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T19:39:18+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.8%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.8%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.8%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.8%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.8%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T00:10:09+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	79.3%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T03:11:17+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T04:42:08+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	12.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	25.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	25.2%	61.6%	37.7%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	80.7%	63.1%	25.2%	61.6%	37.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.0031
National Blend	88%	88.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	81%	89.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0372
IFS Ensemble	63%	86.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.1362
IFS HRES	62%	86.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1475
ICON	38%	84.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.3881
WeatherNext 2	25%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.5595

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗