— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
78¢
wn2
66¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
50¢
eps
48¢
nbm
41¢
hres
27¢
icon
21¢
hrrr
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F24¢
70–71°F31¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T15:33:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape