KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

66%

48%

27%

21%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

ICONNO 50.4¢Risks 50.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.45u · ICON −50.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:50+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	79.2%	45.8%	25.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	79.2%	45.8%	25.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	83.2%	45.8%	25.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	83.2%	45.8%	25.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	83.2%	45.8%	25.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	90.9%	50.0%	83.2%	45.8%	25.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	83.2%	58.4%	77.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	83.2%	58.4%	77.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	83.2%	58.4%	77.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	83.2%	58.4%	77.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	22.3%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	79.2%	58.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	53.2%	18.6%	63.3%	8.9%	85.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	53.2%	18.6%	63.3%	8.9%	85.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	53.2%	18.6%	63.3%	8.9%	85.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	53.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	85.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	53.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	85.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	53.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	85.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	80.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	80.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	80.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	84.1%	8.9%	80.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	84.1%	43.8%	80.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	81.2%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	83.8%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	83.8%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	83.8%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	83.8%	18.6%	86.8%	43.8%	80.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00	77.9%	42.4%	67.4%	24.7%	20.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	77.9%	42.4%	67.4%	24.7%	20.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	77.9%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	20.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	77.9%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	20.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	77.9%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	20.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	77.7%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	21.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	77.7%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	21.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	77.7%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	21.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	77.7%	42.4%	69.7%	24.7%	21.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00	77.7%	47.6%	66.0%	26.8%	21.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	77.7%	47.6%	66.0%	26.8%	21.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	77.7%	47.6%	66.0%	26.8%	21.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	77.7%	47.6%	66.0%	26.8%	21.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	73.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	71.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗