daily prop · Raleigh, NC · Southeast · settles Wed Oct 21

Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +4826 · decimal 49.26

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		26¢
aifs		20¢
wn2		11¢
hres		4¢
nbm		0¢
ndfd		0¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F2¢

66–67°F10¢

68–69°F24¢

70–71°F31¢

72–73°F22¢

74–75°F8¢

76–77°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape