KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.3¢Risks 13.30u

EPSNO 86.7¢Risks 86.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.70u · EPS −86.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:24+00:00	42.2%	5.5%	41.9%	8.0%	9.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:41+00:00	42.2%	3.8%	14.8%	8.0%	9.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	42.2%	3.8%	14.8%	8.0%	9.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	42.2%	3.8%	14.8%	8.0%	9.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	20.1%	3.8%	14.8%	8.0%	9.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	20.1%	3.8%	15.0%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	20.1%	4.0%	15.0%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	20.1%	4.0%	15.0%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	20.1%	4.0%	15.0%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	20.1%	4.0%	13.6%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	20.1%	4.0%	13.6%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	20.1%	4.0%	13.6%	8.0%	10.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	13.6%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	13.6%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	13.6%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	13.6%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	13.6%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	21.2%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	17.9%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	18.5%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	18.5%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	20.7%	4.0%	18.5%	3.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	18.5%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	18.5%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	18.5%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	18.5%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	18.5%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	13.3%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	13.3%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	13.3%	7.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	36.9%	1.1%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	36.9%	1.1%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	36.9%	1.2%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	36.9%	1.2%	13.3%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	36.9%	1.2%	16.8%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	36.9%	1.2%	16.8%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	36.9%	1.2%	16.8%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	36.9%	1.2%	16.8%	7.1%	2.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	16.8%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	16.8%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	16.8%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	16.8%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	0.8%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	13.3%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	9.4%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	30.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	33.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	33.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	33.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	33.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	8.2%	12.5%	33.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	4.1%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	33.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	4.1%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	33.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	4.1%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	33.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	26.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	11.7%	0.2%	26.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	11.7%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	17.7%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	11.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	11.2%	4.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	11.2%	4.3%	26.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	75.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	75.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗