daily prop · Raleigh, NC · Southeast · settles Thu Oct 22

Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

3¢

american +3136 · decimal 32.36

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		24¢
wn2		16¢
icon		9¢
nbm		5¢
ndfd		3¢
hres		2¢
eps		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F4¢

68–69°F11¢

70–71°F22¢

72–73°F27¢

74–75°F21¢

76–77°F10¢

78–79°F3¢

80–81°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape