KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.2¢Risks 12.15u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +87.85u · EPS −87.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:15+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	1.4%	4.3%	10.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	1.4%	5.0%	10.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	1.4%	5.0%	10.1%	2.8%	7.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	22.0%	5.0%	10.4%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	22.0%	5.0%	10.4%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	22.0%	5.4%	10.4%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	22.0%	5.4%	10.4%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	22.0%	5.4%	9.0%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	22.0%	5.4%	9.0%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	22.0%	5.4%	9.0%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	22.0%	5.4%	9.0%	3.0%	6.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	9.0%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	9.0%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	9.0%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	9.0%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:58+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	5.5%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	3.6%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	37.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	4.2%	1.5%	51.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	8.5%	0.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	8.5%	0.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	8.5%	0.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	8.5%	0.6%	45.5%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	8.5%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	19.6%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	17.3%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	17.3%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	37.7%	0.1%	17.3%	5.8%	45.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	17.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	17.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	17.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	17.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	35.8%	0.1%	17.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	35.8%	0.6%	15.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	35.8%	0.6%	15.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	35.8%	0.6%	15.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	29.3%	0.6%	15.3%	3.1%	30.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	29.3%	0.6%	15.3%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	29.3%	0.7%	15.3%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	29.3%	0.7%	15.3%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	29.3%	0.7%	13.2%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	29.3%	0.7%	13.2%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	29.3%	0.7%	13.2%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	29.3%	0.7%	13.2%	3.1%	31.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	13.2%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	13.2%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	13.2%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	13.2%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	28.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	11.7%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	16.5%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	16.5%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	16.5%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	26.6%	0.7%	16.5%	3.9%	25.7%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	23.6%	0.7%	16.5%	1.9%	9.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	23.6%	0.7%	16.5%	1.9%	9.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	23.6%	0.7%	16.5%	1.9%	9.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	23.6%	0.7%	16.5%	1.9%	9.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	24%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	73.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	69.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗