— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
82¢
aifs
70¢
icon
66¢
nbm
54¢
hres
34¢
eps
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F24¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape