KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

70%

66%

34%

23%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

EPSNO 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.60u · EPS −47.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	27.6%	21.6%	77.3%	9.5%	31.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	27.7%	21.6%	77.2%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	27.7%	23.2%	77.2%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	27.7%	23.2%	77.2%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	27.7%	23.2%	77.2%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	27.7%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	27.7%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	27.7%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	31.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	65.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	65.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	65.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	82.7%	9.6%	65.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	82.7%	34.3%	65.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	49.3%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	69.9%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	69.9%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	69.9%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	69.9%	23.2%	81.6%	34.4%	65.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	76.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	75.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	68.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	67.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 72°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗