— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
77¢
aifs
66¢
wn2
66¢
icon
62¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
43¢
eps
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape