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KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
66%
WN2
66%
ICON
62%
HRES
43%
EPS
22%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u
VS
EPSNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.90u · EPS −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 36.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:0069.3%16.5%68.1%36.0%55.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:0069.3%16.5%68.1%36.0%55.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:0069.3%16.5%65.3%36.0%55.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0069.3%16.5%65.3%36.0%55.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0069.3%16.5%65.3%36.0%55.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0066.5%16.5%65.3%36.0%61.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0066.5%16.5%65.3%36.0%61.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:0066.5%16.5%65.3%36.0%61.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0066.5%16.5%65.3%36.0%61.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:0066.5%21.7%65.8%42.8%61.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0066.5%21.7%65.8%42.8%61.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0066.5%21.7%65.8%42.8%61.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0066.5%21.7%65.8%42.8%61.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend77%75.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single66%74.8°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 266%74.4°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON62%74.6°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES43%71.3°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%69.6°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗